Virus News
almost 5 years ago
– Sun, Mar 08, 2020 at 07:08:25 PM
Hi Backers,
This is not an update about Era. In many ways this platform is not the one to use for the information I'm about to share. However, recent health news has such a high chance of impacting all of us, I believe using this platform as a late "early warning" might help reinforce what is already becoming very clear, and if you feel concerned about what's happening, to know that you're not alone, you're not overreacting, and you should not feel ashamed for having significant concerns.
We need to prepare for a society that does not understand--and is not mentally prepared for-- the kind of exponential growth the new coronavirus is likely to bring, as well as hospitalization, ICU, and mortality rates that could very easily overwhelm hospitals all across the globe. Many do not understand how viruses do not grow linearly, but rather double week, over week, over week.
The greatest danger our world faces now is not of any large or sudden change, but of things remaining the same. Assuming a 20% compounded daily growth rate (roughly the shared growth rate among outbreak countries), many countries in Europe will be at 100,000's of cases by April. By May, Europe will likely have millions of cases.
Tonight, Italy quarantined 16 million of it's citizens to contain its outbreak:
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51787238
I think this is very new for many of us. Modern society is accustomed to hearing about new viruses and carrying on unconcerned. This is because many of our past modern viruses usually had a key weakness: Ebola was extremely deadly, but was never airborne, and barely spread out of Africa. A person with SARS showed symptoms in as little as 2 days, allowing for fast treatment and containment. Swine flu (H1N1) was highly infectious, and global, but was comparatively harmless: in the U.S., 60 million became infected, and only 12,000 succumbed to the virus. That's only 1 death out of 5,000 cases. By comparison, WHO just announced that the novel coronavirus currently claims 1 out of 30 infected (3.4% case fatality rate).
The virus targets not just the extremely old or weak, but also the middle-aged. In China, it infects nurses, doctors, and now in Iran--even health ministers.
Some have tried to point out that the common flu is also deadly, but this is weak consolation. The common flu infects nearly the entire globe and culls the absolute weakest, so it's numbers look impressive. If the coronavirus reaches as many as the common flu, far greater numbers will suffer. Numbers in times like these are dangerously counter-intuitive: if 3.4% of the world's population dies from this new coronavirus, that would equal 264 million people.
This new virus stands out as having four sturdy legs that will, at least for the foreseeable future, allow it to spread and disrupt:
1--Undetectable Incubation Period of 14+ days
2--Airborne
3--Deadly (enough)
4--Global (in 101 countries, as of today)
The solution will likely be extreme. Worldwide growth will likely not stop except by direct containment methods. China was able to stop the virus, but only via draconian methods such as locking down cities wholesale, emptying streets, permitting citizens certain days to shop, and punishing those who do not observe these restrictions. All in all, China quaratined more than half a *billion* citizens to stop the spread:https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/16/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-death-toll-update-intl-hnk/index.html Is Western society ready to go to this extreme to stop it? Probably not. I can picture Western citizens accepting light inconveniences, but not the full shutdowns required to stop it, and so the problem will continue.
Western citizens might be ok with large gatherings being cancelled, but is downtown Manhattan ready to become a ghosttown, as Shanghai and Beijing had to do? Is Paris ready to be patrolled by hazmat teams and disinfectant trucks, as South Korea is being now? Western society's lack of discipline and distaste for restrictions will probably keep the virus alive longer than we anticipate.
A second problem is volume. It is not profitable for hospitals to keep a large amount of empty beds in preparation for pandemics, so many don't. To illustrate the pressure this virus can put on a country's health system, China had to build a collosal 1000+ capacity hospital over an 8 day period dedicated solely to battling this virus: https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/16/asia/coronavirus-covid-19-death-toll-update-intl-hnk/index.html
The third, and possibly greatest problem, will be economic. Businesses will have to choose between staying open or closing. When an infected employee is discovered, some businesses may close temporarily to clean/disinfect. However, cases may become so frequent in the months ahead that closing indefinitely will be easier. Starbucks, for example, closed 80% of it's Chinese locations in February. Those that reopened now have reduced seating, hours, and require employees to undergo daily temperature checks: https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/03/05/business/starbucks-coronavirus-update/index.html?__twitter_impression=true).
As businesses around the globe face this dilemma in unison, major supply chains will be disrupted. Suppliers will be unable to make promises to buyers and distributors. Many industries will certainly be adversely affected, even crushed, and severe job losses could follow. With so many countries simultaneously weakened, it is hard to imagine that the months ahead will be easy for the world.
Is there hope the virus will disappear? Yes, definitely. Here are some (and hopefully not all) of the factors that could slow or completely stop the virus:
-Seasonality. It's true that some virus disappear with warming temperatures. This has something to do with infected droplets traveling shorter distances as they collect moisture from humidity and get heavier (as I understand it). UV light may also play into it.
-Testing. Countries like South Korea are carrying out tens of thousands of tests everyday, even providing drive-thru test centers: https://twitter.com/i/status/1236551287933730816 The more information a city has about who is infected, the easier contact-tracing and containment becomes. Support and encourage testing in your city.
-Global cooperation: Luckily, as no single country is facing this alone, countries will be able to share information about the virus.
-The young do not seem very suseptible. Not a single reported death of a child or baby. A real ray of hope.
-A vaccine is, of course, the greatest hope of all, but for that we need time and resources, and a soon delivery is unlikely.
-Viruses do not last forever. They work in waves and usually last 12-18 mos.
Please follow any local guidance you receive, but in the meantime here are some steps you can take as starting points for your own ideas:
-Support, encourage, and call for individual and city-wide quarantines. Quarantines are a proven, mainline defense against viruses.
-Find other sources of income. Jobs that look unappealing now (night shift positions, delivery, security, plasma donation centers, Fiver) could be precious when large layoffs happen.
-Grocery shop, stockpile essentials, and keep receipts. You can always return things you don't need.
-Prepare for isolation, either by your own decision, or imposed by local agencies. Quarantines seem inevitable.
-What will you do for entertainment? Have books, projects ready, and maybe even an exercise plan.
-If you live in a major city, consider staying with any friends or family in more rural areas while the virus passes.
-Above all, should we encounter the worst, it can help to view it as a challenge, rather than a trial. If you have read The Martian, you'll recall how the astronaut stranded on Mars threw himself into figuring out how, using only potatoes and mangled equipment, to survive for 18 months before his rescue team arrived. You can "science" survival. What will be highly valued trade items in a weakly supplied society? Even in disasters, there is room for strategy.
From the precipe overlooking an impeding disaster, history teaches us that denial and delay is often man's first response. We overestimate our chances of things getting better. We have a hard time imagining disaster, because we are so often shielded from it. After the Titanic struck the iceberg, the captain waited over an hour before sending the ship's first SOS. His denial in the early moments of the unfolding catastrophe cost him everything. It is wrong to choose hope, denial, and delay, as he did, when the right choice we must take is acceptance, whatever little bravery we can find, and above all, action.
If in the coming months ahead, should you take steps to address this pandemic, do not feel ashamed for your preparation, sacrifices, fears, or even loneliness. You are not alone, and personally, I think you have chosen wisely, not because you see the future perfectly, but exactly because you see it imperfectly. That is the route of humility. An arrogant person argues that only one outcome must happen. A balanced mind makes room for both possibilities. And since one of those possibilities facing us is very foreboding, it is wise to prepare.
P.S.--As far as Era goes, I can say that Rio Grande Games reached out to me to request a copy. If you feel inclined, please reach out to them to express your appreciation for the help they are considering giving this campaign.
Pnp Help from Nevermore Games
over 5 years ago
– Sat, Apr 27, 2019 at 01:27:57 AM
I wanted to thank Bryan Fischer of Nevermore Games (designer of Chicken Caesar) for reaching out to me and offering to make a few print and play decks using the finished artwork and design we have for Era, while I continue to search for a publisher. This is a time-consuming task, so I appreciate him making this sacrifice. It also means a lot that one of the first Indie publishers on KS has offered his expertise and still wants to see this game come together.
When Bryan originally reached out to me, he showed me a picture of his old Era pnp decks and professionally bound rulebook, so partnering with him on this was an easy call. Having these pnp decks in their finalized form will make it easier to put the game in front of prospective publishers, but it also will give everyone something to play and discuss in the meantime.
Here is a link to his message on boardgame geek, and I've posted it below: https://boardgamegeek.com/article/31829669#31829669
It will be great to see these entire decks laid out for the first time, which will be shared via Dropbox. See some of Bryan's first samples below. Please thank Bryan for the time and energy he is putting into this!
Bryan's message:
"My name is Bryan Fischer and I’m a backer of ERA’s Kickstarter, as well as, a former games publisher (Nevermore Games, now part of Greater Than Games) and game designer (Chicken Caesar, etc.). I do not know the designer of ERA, Steven Lykowski, and I believe that’s important to state up front. I’m just a fan of the game, or what I’ve played of it, having played the original Print and Play from the Kickstarter some time ago.
Approximately one year ago I decided that I would get something for my backing of ERA despite my assumptions that the game would never get published and shipped. I located the print and play files originally shared on the Kickstarter, as well as, the print and play rulebook. I printed everything out, sleeved the cards, and even had the rulebook bound. I figured at that point I was done. I had the only version of ERA any backer could ever have. The files aren’t perfect and the decks not balanced, but it was what I had for my money spent.
I was surprised to see Steven post a Kickstarter update on March 17. Like many of you I read it and found myself somewhere between a state of disappointment and incredulity. I also had an idea so I emailed Steven at the email address he supplied in the update. I introduced myself and told him about my well made print and play version of ERA. I asked him if he’d be willing to share the art files he’s hinted at and shared glimpses of in the past. I said that, if for no other reason, I wanted to make myself an even nicer print and play version of ERA for myself. I also offered to share any final files I made for such a project with him so that he could share them via the Kickstarter with the backers. I figured it might be the closest thing to a finished product we backers would ever get.
To my surprise Steven replied fairly quickly and agreed to send me the final art files for my use and for making new print and play files for the backers. In addition, he felt that this might be a good opportunity for game publishers to see the final art in a playable form and perhaps for someone to pick up the game and finally print it for backers and retail. Steven even offered to mail me his actual prototype decks to use as the basis for these files. He was showing the game to a local backer that week and would send me the decks the day after. I was surprised by his willingness and gladly accepted the files.
I’d have to go back and look at my emails, but I believe it was a week or so later when I received the prototype decks in the mail. He paid to have these shipped to me. I also received an email from Steven explaining some changes to the original rule book that I marked up in my bound copy.
A friend of mine and I got together last night and played the original Print and Play files for ERA. I had played them before years ago, but it was his first play. We both enjoyed the game play despite the obvious problems with the original files. For anyone who has printed that version of the game and given it a try, it plays well enough but there are some incorrect cards and the numbers appear to be off. We retried those particular decks from the prototypes Steven had mailed me and confirmed that they were definitely outdated. The prototypes looked to be much better as far as balance is concerned.
We started looking through several of the prototype decks and have to admit that the game looks fun. There are intricacies to the strategy and difficult decisions to make. It flows quite nicely once you know how to play, and the theme is top notch. I say this having seen the final art files in Photoshop form. They’re quite beautiful.
Now I have several sandwich baggies full of decks printed in black and white with penciled in changes and even a few question marks. I have several questions for Steven and he’s been kind enough to answer my rules questions to date quickly and concisely. I have no doubt he’ll answer my future questions.
My Goal
As I told Steven in my original emails, my goal is to make 4 playable decks with the final art available to backers. I will lay them out per the prototype decks using the final art and host them on Dropbox. I will share that link here and with Steven to post on the Kickstarter. I have not decided on the four decks yet, but they will represent different time periods in the anachronistic spirit of the game. It's been interesting wading through all of the files and trying to make sense of them. Every graphic designer has their own methods, so it's a process. I don't have everything I need to do this, but I have 95% and I've emailed Steven asking him for the rest.
I will also discuss the rulebook with Steven. I need to check the files again and see if the rules files are in there. If they are, I will discuss with Steven making the necessary changes to those for a fairly finish print and play version of the rules. I will not be laying out the rules in any new way, simply editing what’s already there to include changes.
Updates will be posted via this thread on BGG and my friend, Allen, will be posting a link now an then on the Kickstarter on my behalf. I cannot post on the Kickstarter due to no longer having access to the account I backed with. For those who are interested, I sold Nevermore Games to Greater Than Games this past December, so that Kickstarter account is no longer mine and I cannot post using it or even log into it any longer.
What My Goal Is Not
I have a full time job and a family with three kiddos, a loving wife, and lots of activities. I say this as a prelude to this: I do not plan on laying out all of the decks. This would be a tremendous undertaking. Laying out four of the decks is already a sizable undertaking and my free time is limited as is.
I do hope many of the backers will print out the files I create and enjoy the game as such. I know it's not what you paid for, but it's something and the game truly is fun to play in my humble opinion."
Apology and Some Possible Good News (Maybe)
almost 6 years ago
– Mon, Mar 18, 2019 at 01:40:04 AM
Hi Backers,
Just wanted to give an update on the campaign as well as my own situation. A lot financial and personal challenges have made me unable to address Era for the last year. For 7 months I was without a car, and relied on public transit for all of my needs. Getting groceries by bus will really change how you view a lot of things. I was also without a lot of necessities, such as a computer and briefly even a phone, but being carless in a consistently rainy city was certainly the worst part. I have not had a permanent residence for over a year. It has been a very difficult time, but I don't feel that additional details as to how this unfolded will make much of a difference. For those of you who have been in a similar situation, I hope you will understand. I can't say my current situation has completely improved, but I was recently able to get a used car and it is working.
Unfortunately, on March 1st I was also let go from my job. Prior to that, the Sears I was working at closed almost as soon as I was hired (Clackamas OR location). So a lot of challenges have been piling up. Dignity says I am not supposed to share details like this and that they will be used against me. But I am glad that my interest in games has survived even through this interminable campaign and far worse personal challenges. I'm determined to stick with this campaign--this failure--until we get it fixed or at least improved, no matter how long it drags on.
I also wanted to make a full apology about how badly I ran this Kickstarter. I have had more time than I have wanted to think about these kinds of things, and this is long due. The farther away in time we view our mistakes, the more they become clear to us, and the harder it is to actually apologize.
I messed up, plain and simple. I assume there were pillars in place to hold just how shaky the campaign was becoming. I trusted that new sales, new Kickstarters, or distribution deals would cover my business's growing financial problems. I even comfortably thought of the campaign as a "loss leader"
that would be compensated by future sales of the expansions. Plus--I had delivered Nova Cry somehow--so why worry? A new deal with a distributor/warehouse, a rebooted Kickstarter, or a bank loan would be just around the corner and Era will get shipped.
There is a phrase in business I learned too late: "First crawl, then walk, then run." I wanted to sprint immediately out of the gate with World Within instead of building this business slowly and carefully. As I look back, I think one of the first red flags, for Era at least, was me adding expansions between our first campaign launch and the second campaign launch. I should have accepted smaller results and took enjoyment in a delivering a clean campaign.
Is there any good news here? Well, I still think a delivery of this Kickstarter is possible. A big obstacle in delivering this campaign was an all-or-nothing approach. I've realized in the past months that this is holding back the campaign. A partial, rather than a full delivery, opens up a lot of doors, and could reduce our costs down to as much as a quarter.
By some estimates I think our remaining costs for this campaign could be as low as $7,500. This is if backers are willing to assist in reduced shipping (and I will not collect those funds myself if at all possible, as backers have requested). Before, we were looking at a bill of $35-40k to ship a large and mostly empty box of 4 decks with room for expansions, plus the 11 expansion packs alongside the main box. What a clunky, messy project. I don't see that happening, and I have to mentally close that door.
But a smaller product might actually work. If we are willing to pack 8 decks into a small box, avoid high quality options, use a b/w rulebook, and cut some creative corners with some of the tokens, there is a real chance we can still get this game out.
So really we are looking at small box of 4 decks 2 layers deep. That is really doable.
I know 8 vs 15 decks is very upsetting from a purchase standpoint, but I don't think it will make a difference in someone enjoying or not enjoying the game. If our initial delivery goes well, it opens the doors to delivering the remaining decks. But right now I just want to focus on getting something out and this little 4x2 deck stack is something I can get my head around for the moment.
But either way, I feel we are so close, regardless of how long this has all been.
I don't know what available time I will have in the months ahead as my situation is not stable, but I am recommitting to floating this game in front of small quality publishers. I'm hoping they can understand the campaign's situation, will look to put as positive a face on this campaign as possible, and want to print it immediately. Given the campaign's new funding target, I think this is very possible. I at least want to try.
Though this was not the case in the past, I am no longer looking to get any kind of financial deal on this project--I ultimately just want the game to hand over the project to an amiable, trusting publisher.
Thank you everyone.
PS - I have trouble viewing messages in the Kickstarter app on my phone. If you know a publisher that might be interested, please have them email me directly at [email protected].
Thanks.
Last Few Months
about 7 years ago
– Sat, Nov 25, 2017 at 11:29:07 PM
Hi Backers,
Just wanted to mention that I hit several unavoidable delays since our last update. I was busy packing and moving to a new location (which
is completed now), as well as preparing for a very important business trip
(also done now). This combination took up nearly every spare moment I had in
the last 30-45 days. Prior to that, I had spent several weeks doing an
emergency review of the decks (100+ playtests, some decks more than others),
since any publisher I request help from is going to insist that the game’s polish and finish be perfect. The game can no longer be “good enough”—it has
to be excellent. I did not originally intend to do this. Additional playtesting
was not necessary prior to our printing dilemma, but it was now, and that extra
playtesting is now done. I have to hand off a perfect game to the publisher I
expect to partner with.
I will resume where I left off with trying to hire an
affordable graphic designer to lay out the printing files. I know that is the same point of progress I
mentioned in our previous update, but as I said, unavoidable things have
happened since then, including the intense review of the cards, which I felt
was crucial.
I know this is not a significant update, but I want to let
you know regardless. This project weighs on me heavily and I want it done, as
does everyone. The only thing I can do at this point is continue working on it as
hard as I can. I will need everyone’s
continued patience, as challenges continue to mount.
Steven
Checking In
over 7 years ago
– Wed, Sep 27, 2017 at 12:19:19 AM
A very quick update to say that I am still working on the items mentioned in our previous update, especially regards to finding a publisher and searching for an affordable graphic designer to lay out the final cards (I have reached out to, and have been contacted by, several). I am working on these items on a daily basis as best I can, and I am still committed to doing everything I can to get the game to all of you who pledged.
Below are some re-done illustrations that were completed a few months ago. (There were many more). I hope you like the improved versions.
Thanks Backers,
Steve
